Baffert takes both Southwest Stakes divisions

Horseracing Betting Lines

02/20/2012 - Hot Springs, AR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Trainer Bob Baffert sent two horses to Oaklawn Park for the Presidents' Day running of the Southwest Stakes hoping to come away with one victory. However, the race drew 21 entries splitting it into two divisions, each worth $250,000.

Baffert came away from Monday's Southwest Stakes with two victories as Castaway and Secret Circle each won a division of the mile event. Also claiming two wins was jockey Rafael Bejarano.

The first division had a field of 11 three-year-olds. Castaway broke well and joined Majestic Stride on the lead. Bejarano had his mount to the outside of the leader right on Majestic Stride's shoulder.

Castaway took over the lead coming out of the final turn and began to draw clear at the top of the stretch. The 6-1 fourth pick opened his lead down the stretch and posted a 3 3/4-length victory over the late running Jake Mo.

Finishing third was Reckless Jerry, who was second in the track's Smarty Jones Stakes last month. Completing the order of finish were Ring It Up, Majestic Stride, Longview Drive, Junebugred, No Spin, Unbridled's Note, Laurie's Rocket and Red Jack.

Castaway completed the mile in 1:38.09 on a fast track.

Owned by Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor and Derrick Smith, Castaway won for the just the second time and notched his first stakes win. The victory was worth $150,000 to bring the colt's total earnings to $209,930. The son of 2007 Kentucky Derby champ Street Sense broke his maiden four weeks ago after failing five times.

Castaway returned $15.40, $9.40 and $7.20. Jake Mo paid $19.00 and $7.40, and Reckless Jerry paid $4.20 to show.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint winner Secret Circle was sent off as the 3-5 favorite in the 10-horse second division. The colt and Bejarano were first out of the gate, but allowed Scatman and jockey Luis Quinonez to set the pace.

Scatman continued to set the pace with the favorite to his outside. Secret Circle drew along side on the final turn and had short lead entering the stretch. Scatman regained the lead at the top of the stretch and looked ready to pull off an upset.

Owned by Karl Watson, Paul Weitmann and Mike Pegram, Secret Circle was able to rally in the final yards and defeat Scatman by a half-length. Adirondack King was third followed by Pee H Dee, Cyber Secret, Z Rockstar, Chalybeate Springs, King Coral, Apprehender and Big Wednesday.

Secret Circle covered the mile in 1:37.08.

The colt also added $150,000 to his bankroll, which now stands at $518,990. Secret Circle began the year with a second to Out of Bounds in last month's Sham Stakes at Santa Anita as the 1-2 favorite.

After winning in his first career start, he won the John Goodman Stakes at Santa Anita and then captured the Juvenile Sprint at Churchill Downs as the 2-5 favorite.

Secret Circle paid $3.20, $3.20 and $2.40. Scatman returned $6.40 and $4.60, and Adirondack King paid $3.60 to show.

Next on the Oaklawn schedule for Kentucky Derby hopefuls is the $500,000 Rebel on March 17 and the $1 million Arkansas Derby on April 14. Archarcharch won last year's Southwest and Arkansas Derby.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.

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