Stewart benefits from Gordon error

Autoracing Betting Lines

08/12/2007 - Watkins Glen, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tony Stewart watched as Jeff Gordon slid off the track with two laps to go and the No.20 Joe Gibbs Racing driver went on to capture Sunday's Centurion Boats at the Glen Nextel Cup race at the Watkins Glen International road course. The Home Depot Chevrolet took the checkered flag 2.460 seconds ahead of Denny Hamlin.

The victory was Stewart's third of the season, fourth at Watkins Glen and 32nd of his "Cup" career.

"Jeff and I by far had the best two cars," said Stewart. "We kept the pressure on Jeff and hoped he made a mistake and that's what happened."

After pole qualifying was rained out, Gordon was awarded the pole based on owner points and he brought the field to the green flag for 90 laps of racing. But Matt Kenseth beat him to the first corner and came out of it in first. Down the back straight, Gordon got it back and he completed the first lap as the leader.

Gordon continued to show the way with Hamlin and Stewart second and third, respectively. Kenseth's Ford was way too loose and he fell back through the top-10. Moving up into the top-10 were Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Kurt Busch. Also charging forward was Juan Pablo Montoya who cracked the top-10 on lap eight.

Stewart got around Hamlin and took off after Gordon. Following a caution flag (David Ragan spin) Stewart easily beat Gordon into the first turn and the lead was his. The No.20 Home Depot Chevrolet quickly built the margin to two seconds.

Brian Vickers brought out the second caution flag on lap 24 and most of the leaders took advantage of the flag to make their first of two pit stops on the afternoon.

Seven cars had stopped earlier or were still waiting for their pit window and behind Jamie McMurray held the top seven spots. But Gordon and Stewart quickly knifed their way up the charts.

By lap 30 Gordon was third and Stewart fifth. A lap later they were second and third. They were both chasing Patrick Carpentier. Finally on lap 38 the Canadian pitted and it was Stewart, who got by Gordon, in control.

This time Stewart didn't run away and hide from Gordon and Earnhardt Jr. who was in third place. They could stay with Stewart, but was the No.20 Chevrolet just pacing himself for the end?

Inexplicably, Stewart made a mistake and spun on lap 45 in turn one, falling from first to 19th place. That gave the lead to Gordon once again. Gordon built his lead to one second on "Junior" and three seconds on Jimmie Johnson as the field passed the 50-lap mark.

Meanwhile, Stewart began the long trek back up the charts, trying to do it without abusing his Chevy for the final laps.

A caution flag on lap 52 (Reed Sorenson and Johnson spin) left 38 laps to the checkered flag.

Pit road was busy as Gordon led the parade down pit lane in which almost every car stopped. They would all take the gamble on fuel hoping to reach the end from there.

The four drivers who didn't stop, Bobby Labonte, Jeremy Mayfield, Kasey Kahne and Dave Blaney held the top positions.

Of those earlier leaders, Gordon edged Earnhardt Jr. and Hamlin off pit road. Looming big behind the leaders was Montoya.

Gordon was flying and by lap 60 only Mayfield was left in front of him. He passed Mayfield with ease, but Gordon couldn't relax. Behind him was Kurt Busch, "Junior" and Carl Edwards. Also in the top-10 were Montoya and "angry driver" by the name of Stewart.

By lap 63 Stewart was in seventh, just behind Montoya. Earnhardt Jr. came to the first turn on the same lap and suddenly slowed. He appeared to be coasting without power and the caution flag came out.

"It looks like the engine blew," said an unhappy crew chief Tony Eury Jr.

The result for Earnhardt Jr. was a 42nd-place finish and a disaster for his "Chase" hopes.

Kurt Busch took advantage of the Earnhardt problem and refueled to guarantee he could make it to the checkered flag. Smart "insurance" by a smart team.

Stewart made quick work of Montoya and was in fourth behind Gordon, Hamlin and Edwards. With 23 laps to go, Stewart made a spectacular pass, both on and off the course, of Edwards for third place.

But a caution flag when Kyle Petty blew his engine gave everyone a chance to catch their breath and set up the battle for the win.

The race restarted with 18 laps to go, but they couldn't get past the first turn before another caution flag. This one started when Truex Jr. got into the back of Montoya and sent him into the turn too fast hitting Harvick. The two got out of their cars and started pushing and yelling at each other.

Finally, Montoya got back in his car and drove away but only a few feet further and his day was essentially done. Others that suffered damage included Jeff Burton and Jamie McMurray.

The race was red-flagged for the multi-car cleanup and it gave everyone a chance to calm down for the final laps.

The restart came with 13 laps remaining. Somehow, despite one car spinning, they got through the first turn without a caution flag.

Gordon, Hamlin and Stewart were nose to tail. Stewart got side-by-side with Hamlin in turn 10 and beat him the start/finish line for second place.

Still, Gordon had about an eight-length lead, but that wasn't enough with still 12 laps to go.

The action was furious, but with 10 laps to go, P.J. Jones spun into the gravel trap and the yellow flew once again. He appeared to have help from Kurt Busch.

The green flag dropped with eight to go and Stewart was stuck on Gordon's rear bumper like glue.

Slowly, every so slowly, Gordon pulled away from Stewart. With five laps to go he held 0.523 seconds (four lengths). A lap later in was 0.590 seconds.

Then Gordon went too deep into turn one on lap 89 and the race was between Stewart and Edwards for the win.

"I just overdrove it into (turn) one, pretty much the same thing that happened to Tony," said Gordon on his way back to the garage. "We're right on the edge in the braking zone getting into one...just stupid. Tony was really good and I really wanted the win."

"I gave it away and got it back the same way I lost it," said Stewart.

On the final lap Edwards was about two lengths back going into turn 10 and went way too deep running through the gravel trap. Stewart cruised to the win and somehow Edwards still finished eighth.

Johnson, Ron Fellows and Robby Gordon completed the top-five while points leader Jeff Gordon finished ninth.

The next race is the series is set for Sunday, August 19th at the Michigan International Speedway.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.