Wildcats and Bulldogs square off for SEC crown

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/14/2010 - Nashville, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The championship game of the SEC Tournament pits the second-ranked Kentucky Wildcats against the Mississippi State Bulldogs, the top-seeded teams from the league's East and West Divisions, respectively.

Mississippi State is the defending champion of this event, as it defeated Tennessee by a 64-61 final in the 2009 title game, and the program has three titles to its credit. The Bulldogs, who are 23-10 overall, opened play at this event with a 75-69 decision over Florida in Friday's semifinal round. Yesterday, the Bulldogs knocked off Vanderbilt by a 62-52 final.

As for the Wildcats, they have won this event 25 times and own a 113-22 record in SEC Tournament games. Still, they haven't cut down the nets since 2004 and haven't reached the title game since 2005. Kentucky barely got by Alabama in the quarterfinals, but the team was impressive in a 74-45 romp over nationally-ranked Tennessee on Saturday. The Wildcats are 31-2 overall and figure to be a number one seed in the upcoming NCAA Tournament regardless of today's outcome.

Kentucky beat Mississippi State by an 81-75 final in overtime during the regular season, and the Wildcats own an 85-20 mark in the all-time series between the teams.

The man to watch for Mississippi State is forward/center Jarvis Varnado, the three-time defending SEC Defensive Player of the Year. Not only does Varnado lead the Bulldogs with 13.4 ppg on 58.3 percent shooting from the floor, he is also ripping down 10.4 rpg to go along with 158 blocks. Ravern Johnson is close behind offensively with 13.3 ppg, and Dee Bost provides 12.7 ppg and 173 assists. Barry Stewart is the program's all-time leader in three-pointers made and he is posting 11.8 ppg. MSU is generating 72.5 ppg, while surrendering 64.2 ppg on 38.4 percent shooting. The Bulldogs played tremendous defense against Vanderbilt yesterday, as they limited the Commodores to 34.6 percent shooting from the field. MSU committed just nine turnovers and got 14 points and eight rebounds. Varnado, Bost and Phil Turner all added 11 points in the triumph.

Like Mississippi State, Kentucky has four double-digit scorers in the fold, three of which are freshman. Star rookie John Wall was recently named the SEC Player of the Year, and he is netting 16.9 ppg to go along with 6.3 apg. DeMarcus Cousins, the SEC Freshman of the Year, provides 15.5 ppg and 10.2 rpg, and he is tops on the roster with 60 blocks. Veteran Patrick Patterson checks in with 14.7 ppg and 7.4 rpg, while Eric Bledsoe is scoring 10.6 ppg. The Wildcats are generating 79.4 ppg, while permitting just 65.0 ppg to opponents on 38 percent shooting. Kentucky is outrebounding opponents by 8.3 rpg, key to the success. In the 29-point win over Tennessee yesterday, the Wildcats played tremendously at the defensive end, limiting the Vols to 30.9 percent shooting, including 2-of-15 from three-point range. Kentucky, which earned a 44-29 rebounding advantage, shot 52.1 percent from the floor and was led by a 19-point, 15-rebound effort from Cousins.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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